Edge’s thirteenth Skills Shortage Bulletin highlights that the UK continues to face a shortage of skills in essential roles, an issue only compounded by growing barriers to skills development. While the bulletin does not always make light reading, it is a necessary tool for understanding the scope of the issue. By compiling qualitative and quantitative evidence, we hope the latest edition will enable policymakers to make better-informed decisions and develop targeted interventions as we unpick the multiple challenges currently affecting the labour market.
Business Barometer highlights that 73% of organisations are struggling
The Open University’s annual Business Barometer report finds that nearly three-quarters (73%) of UK organisations are currently experiencing skills shortages. This might not come as a surprise but it does confirm the expected state of play.
To tackle this and other related trends, the Open University has been working with the John Lewis Partnership to provide Higher Education to care leavers, diversifying the company’s workforce and accessing hidden talent pools. While employers can learn from this initiative, many – including small and medium enterprises (SMEs) – lack the resources to address the skills gap in this way. This is an issue that will need addressing in future skills strategies.
Unpacking the ongoing teacher recruitment crisis
Our current bulletin offers a comprehensive review of the latest research into education and teaching staff recruitment. In 2022-23, the sector saw a 93% increase in teaching vacancies compared to the year before the pandemic. Evidence suggests that real-term declines in pay, persistently high workloads, and remote working trends are all contributing to the problem.
Edge’s overview considers findings from numerous reports published over the past year, including those delivered or funded by organisations like NFER, Gatsby Foundation and EEF, which explore recruitment in schools as well as how the issue affects the FE sector. While the findings paint a bleak picture, we hope this evidence may feed into an anticipated Teacher Workforce Strategy under a new government post-election.
Youth Voice Census: Mental health issues continue to dominate
Now in its sixth year, the latest Youth Voice UK census reveals that the mental health crisis highlighted in our last bulletin continues to cause disconnection and disenfranchisement. Just 12.4% of young people believe quality work is available where they live, with little confidence of employer support as they approach working age. Self-efficacy is especially low in economically disadvantaged areas and for transgender individuals.
More broadly, the latest census highlights that 74.7% of young people have not heard of 'green jobs' despite this being a key growth sector. Furthermore, only 44.6% of respondents said they understood the skills employers want, a reduction in confidence of 12.4% from last year. Concerningly, Black, African, Black British or Caribbean respondents were consistently less likely to have undertaken in-person work experience than their peers, despite being twice as likely to have applied. This highlights how systemic inequality is contributing to the issue of poor mental health and unemployment.
Youth worklessness due to ill health is a trend to watch
While fears of a lasting rise in youth unemployment following Covid-19 did not come to pass, youth worklessness remains a growing trend. The latest research from the Resolution Foundation highlights that the number of 18-24-year-olds not working due to ill health has almost doubled in a decade, from 94,000 in 2012 to 185,000 in 2022.
However, there is also reason for cautious optimism, with unemployment rates for 18-24-year-olds no higher at the start of 2023 than on the eve of the pandemic. However, statistics vary by region. Young people in cities like London, Cardiff, Glasgow or Liverpool are less likely to be out of work due to ill health (around 2%) compared to the same cohort living in small towns in areas like Derbyshire, Devon and South Wales (around 3.4%). With any spell outside the labour market potentially impacts employment prospects, policymakers must act now to ensure early intervention for mental health issues - one of the biggest causes of youth worklessness.
NFER's Skills Imperative 2035: Preparing for the impact of AI
Finally, the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) has been exploring generative AI’s likely impact on the labour market by 2035. They have modelled a scenario that assumes accelerated take-up of automation-related technologies. Resulting projections have identified that administration and service occupations will see the highest employment declines by 2035, followed by secretarial and other related occupations.
However, NFER’s work has also shown that (by now familiar) ‘essential employment skills’ such as communication, collaboration and problem-solving remain those that will be in demand by 2035. Given the dominance of these skills in current discourse, it is at least encouraging that more radical changes in skills demand may not dominate as some have predicted. Nevertheless, coordinated and continued government effort is required to support the development of these ‘meta’ skills.
Download the full report
Despite some difficult headline statistics, it is by understanding these that we can pave the way forward. To explore these challenging topics further, and by contrast, for some positive interventions, you can download the latest bulletin for free.
Olly Newton is Executive Director at the Edge Foundation @OllyNewtonUK
